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Drafting: An Inexact Science

June 18, 2007 @ 3:43 PM ET

There is no specific set of rules to follow when deciding on draft selections; the process is most definitely an inexact one. But though it's hardly predictable, the draft can either validate so-called genius GMs and scouting directors or make them look downright foolish. And in some cases, it even turns geniuses into blithering idiots because they've managed to trade the future MVP for two skate-sharpeners, a case of Molson, and future considerations.

It's safe to assume that the NHL draft has become far more important under the league's new collective bargaining agreement. Gone are the days where Colorado could hold the Kings hostage over Rob Blake's ransom. And the likes of Toronto, Detroit and Philadelphia, large market teams under the old system, can't afford to mortgage the future anymore for a veteran (Brian Leetch comes to mind) with a sizeable contract.

The future can't be bought anymore. It must be drafted and developed. And some will learn this faster than others. Today's GM must find the right players, not only for next year's team, where they will be immediately judged, but through the draft, they impact their franchise five and ten years down the line, by taking their choice of kids who couldn't imagine life without cell phones and the Mighty Ducks movies.

The expansion age has changed the draft day degree of difficulty. Once upon a time, future all-stars just sat there for the taking, two or three at a time. And unless the front office was completely incompetent, each team usually found a few solid contributors in their draft class.

In Edmonton's first NHL draft (1979), they selected Kevin Lowe with the last selection in the first round (21st), Mark Messier in the third round (48th) and Glenn Anderson in the fourth round (69th). The next year it was Paul Coffey in the first round (6th), Jari Kurri in the fourth round (69th) and Andy Moog in the seventh round (132nd). Buffalo wound up with Phil Housley and Dave Andreychuk in the first round of the 1982 draft. And in 1987, Montreal selected John LeClair (33rd), Eric Desjardins (38th) and Mathieu Schneider (44th). That was after drafting Andrew Cassels with their first round pick, 17th overall.

But today's teams will be lucky to find two solid players, capable of making an impact on an NHL roster, any NHL roster. Wade Redden was selected with the second pick in the 1995 entry draft by the New York Islanders. Nine picks later, Jarome Iginla was chosen by the Dallas Stars. Neither played a single game with the organization that drafted them.

Other times, players will make it, only after leaving the club that drafted them. Mike Commodore dabbled through three organizations (New Jersey, Anaheim and Calgary) before his coming out party during the 2004 Stanley Cup playoffs. Michael Peca, drafted by Vancouver with the 40th pick in the 1992 draft, played just 37 games with Canucks before being dealt to Buffalo for Alexander Mogilny.

How important are the first two or three rounds? Only three players from the first round of the 2001 entry draft have yet to play an NHL game; twelve of them have over 100 games of NHL experience. In a best-case scenario, the first few rounds of the draft can go a long way in putting together a winning team. In 1998, Tampa Bay selected Vincent Lecavalier first overall, but found future Conn Smythe winner Brad Richards in the third round (64th). In that same draft, Colorado drafted Alex Tanguay, Martin Skoula and Robin Regehr in the first round. Tanguay and Skoula played on the Avalanche's 2001 title team; Regehr was traded mid-season to Calgary for Theo Fleury.

It also helps to pick early, very early. Atlanta and Pittsburgh have built the core of their current roster through the draft. The Thrashers picked Dany Heatley (since traded for Marian Hossa) second overall in the 2000 draft. Ilya Kovalchuk was selected first overall in 2001 and Kari Lehtonen second overall in 2002.

Pittsburgh used the fifth pick in 2002 to select defenseman Ryan Whitney and they drafted Marc-Andre Fleury with the first pick in 2003, Evgeni Malkin second overall in 2004, Sidney Crosby with the top pick in 2005 and Jordan Staal with the second pick in 2006. Other top five talents include Spezza, Eric Staal, Ovechkin, Nash, Gaborik, Thornton, the Sedin brothers, and Rick DiPietro. And that's just this decade.

For those that aren't higher-echelon, draft day commodities, it's a matter of stockpiling, hoping that one day they might work out. Most that get drafted simply know where that first paying job is, like for Brian Boyle, who was drafted by the Kings in 2003, before going on to play for four years at Boston College. He spent his post-graduation days with the Manchester Monarchs, just weeks after losing his last collegiate game to Michigan State in the Frozen Four.

Sometimes teams will get lucky. Zach Parise didn't want to play four years of college hockey. Neither did Phil Kessel, Chris Bourque or Thomas Vanek. But it's tough for players who aren't blessed with the same multi-million dollar guaranteed rookie contracts that exist in the NBA or the lucrative signing bonuses that some MLB draft picks get. It's also tougher to convince a middle class hockey family to give up the benefits of a college education.

Make no mistake, both the league and the draft would benefit from the same age limits that the NFL and NBA impose. The long-term implications of the NHL draft are difficult, both to predict and eventually judge, both on the kids and the teams that draft them. But those teams that can look into their crystal ball and see the next ten to fifteen years in the life of teenagers will be the most successful down the road.

But drafting early doesn’t always translate into success. There are several cases where players, who were drafted late or not at all, are doing quite well in the NHL.

Here is a list of highly successful active players who were passed over on draft day...

Samuel Pahlsson, Colorado, 1996 - 7th round (176th overall)

The shut-down center and Selke nominee showed his value during the Stanley Cup Final, keeping Ottawa’s talented line of Spezza, Alfredsson and Heatley largely in-check. The Swede made his NHL debut with the Bruins in 2000, after being dealt with Brian Rolston, in a deadline deal that sent that sent future Hall of Famers Ray Bourque and Dave Andreychuk to Colorado. The center played 21 games for Boston before being dealt to Anaheim for Andrei Nazarov and Patrick Traverse.

Hal Gill, Boston, 1993 - 8th round (207th overall)

A towering presence of stability, Gill has missed only 16 games over the last eight seasons, suiting up for all 82 Maple Leaf games in 2006-07. The 6’ 7” defenseman scored six goals and notched 14 assists last season.

Bret Hedican, St. Louis 1988 - 10th round (198th overall)

The two-time U.S. Olympian has been a defensive backbone on two conference champions and a Stanley Cup winner; with Vancouver in 1994 and Carolina in 2002 and 2006. Hedican has notched 271 points in 922 regular season games and 26 points in 108 playoff games.

Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit 1998 - 6th round (171st overall)

Datsyuk finished the season with 27 goals, 60 assists and a seven year $46.9 million contract extension. Not too shabby for a guy that was passed up in the 1996 and 1997 Draft because scouts were worried he wouldn’t be physically strong enough to excel at the next level. The two-time Olympian also had a stellar playoff campaign with 16 points in 18 games.

Henrik Lundqvist, New York 2000 - 7th round (205th overall)

The two-time Vezina nominee was an afterthought in the Rangers long-term plans, behind both Dan Blackburn and Al Montoya. But the Swede’s stellar 2005-06 rookie campaign ended with an All-Rookie team nod, a nomination as a Vezina Trophy finalist, and an Olympic gold medal. The 25 year-old followed it up by winning 37 games in 2006-07 and sported a sparkling 2.34 GAA, and was a Vezina Trophy finalist for the second consecutive season.

Martin St. Louis, Undrafted

The three-time Hobey Baker finalist at the University of Vermont was considered “too small” at just 5’ 9”. He signed with Calgary as an undrafted free agent and made his NHL debut in 1999. In 2004, St. Louis became the first player since Wayne Gretzky to win the Art Ross, Hart and Stanley Cup in the same season. Last season, he notched 43 goals and 59 assists for Tampa Bay and was named an All-Star for the third time.

Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit 1999, 7th round (210th overall)

“The most underrated player in the league,” according to Gretzky, Zetterberg has scored 109 goals and 131 assists in just four NHL seasons. In 2003, the Calder finalist led all rookies with 22 goals and 44 points and was named to the league’s All-Rookie Team. The 2007 NHL All-Star won an Olympic gold medal at the 2006 Olympics with the Swedish National Team.

Dominik Hasek, Chicago 1983 - 10th round (199th overall)

The two-time MVP played 25 games in the Windy City as Ed Belfour’s backup before being traded to Buffalo for Stephane Beauregard. In his second season with the Sabres, Hasek led the league with a 1.95 GAA, en route to his first of five Vezinas. His stellar play was instrumental in Buffalo’s 1999 Stanley Cup run and the Czech’s 1998 Olympic gold medal victory. A sure fire Hall of Famer, “the Dominator” was traded to Detroit for the 2001-02 season where he won a career high 41 games and a Stanley Cup title.

Sami Salo, Ottawa 1996 - 9th round (239th overall)

The Finnish defenseman notched career highs in 2006-07 with 14 goals and 23 assists in just 67 games. Salo, who was traded to Vancouver for Peter Schafer in 2002, has notched 195 points in 474 regular season games and was named to the league’s All-Rookie Team in 1999. His blistering shot makes him a blue line presence, with 30 of his 59 career goals coming on the power-play.

Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose 1994 - 9th round (219th overall)

Despite a series of groin injuries, Nabokov finished the 2006-07 season with a 25-16-4 record, seven shutouts and a 2.29 GAA. It was Nabokov, not highly-touted prospect Miikka Kiprusoff, who got the call after goaltender Steve Shields went down with an injury in the second game of the 2000-01 season, going 32-21-7 with a 2.19 GAA en route to the Calder Trophy.

Pavol Demitra, Ottawa 1993 - 9th round (227th overall)

The Czech winger scored 25 goals and picked up 39 assists last season for Minnesota, including four game-winners. The three-time All-Star notched a career-high 37 goals for St. Louis in 1998-99 and followed that up with 75 points in 71 games and an astounding +34 in 1999-2000. The 32-year-old has 645 points in 682 career NHL games.

Filip Kuba, Florida 1995, 8th round (192nd overall)

Last season, Kuba posted career highs in goals (15) and assists (22) for Tampa Bay. The 30-year-old defenseman played a key role in Minnesota’s ride to the 2003 Western Conference final with eight points in 18 playoff games. The 2004 All-Star also holds the Wild franchise record for scoring by a defenseman.