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Why The Blue Jackets Will Win
April 15, 2009 @ 8:52 PM ET
The hockey media have made much of the Columbus Blue Jackets' debut in the NHL post-season festivities. However, those same experts (including many of my colleagues here at Inside Hockey) now dismiss the club's chances of dispatching the Detroit Red Wings, much as a tolerant adult might dismiss a young child from a serious discussion. Guess what? Sometimes those kids have something valuable to contribute. Columbus has earned its seat at the Grown-Up Table, and the evidence supports the conclusion that they just might hang around for more than the first course of the meal.
Here is why the Wings will be shot down in Round One:
1. Recent Playoff Record -- Since 2001, the Red Wings are 4-3 in Round 1 series. Every one of those series, win or lose, has gone six games, except the 2003 opener against Anaheim, which Detroit lost four-zip. 2003 also marked the year that Detroit was the defending Stanley Cup Champion. Detroit has been far from dominant in quarterfinal series, suggesting that they just might not take these preliminary rounds all that seriously, despite Mike Babcock's protestations to the contrary.
2. Attitude --Piggybacking on Item One, it seems pretty obvious that nobody in Detroit is viewing this series with anything approaching respect. Mike Babcock has tried, but he keeps tripping on his own tongue, referring to the Columbus defensemen as "journeymen" and largely dismissing Mason's efforts in the second half of the season. The Detroit fans apparently share this apathy -- the Red Wings called the Blue Jackets booster club and offered tickets to the Detroit games at a 25% discount! In contrast, tickets in Columbus has gone as fast as they can print them, and anything with the Stanley Cup Playoffs logo is being snatched up in a frenzy. The Blue Jackets themselves are being quietly respectful, and have the looseness that comes from lack of expectations. An apathetic Red Wings squad and a Columbus team with nothing to lose is a dangerous combination for Detroit.
3. Coaching --No offense to Babcock, who has a great record , but let's be serious. When you have that much talent playing together for that long, you should have a great record. Ken Hitchcock (with the able assistance of GM Scott Howson) has transformed the Columbus team in a very short time. Nobody in hockey outworks Hitchcock in terms of preparation, and he knows Detroit. Heck, he recreates Civil War battles for fun! He is a master of the kinds of details that prove decisive in series such as this one, and has the full attention and buy-in of his players.
4. Defense --The Red Wings led the league in Goals Per Game at 3.598, but mustered only 18 goals in six games against the Jackets, including a five goal effort against a wounded Pascal Leclaire. Detroit, however, was only 19th in the NHL in defense, allowing 2.978 goals per game. Columbus, in contrast, ranked 9th in defense. In their three victories over the Wings, the Blue Jackets used an aggressive forecheck, neutral zone pressure and strong checking to keep Detroit to the perimeter and frustrate their puck possession game. Commodore and Hejda may well be the most underrated shut-down blue line pair in the league, while Tyutin and Russell provide the puck handling and offensive punch from the blue line that the Jackets will need to maintain offensive pressure.
5. Goaltending--20-year-old Steve Mason has been huge, both literally and figuratively, for the Blue Jackets between the pipes. Leading the league in shutouts, and in the top echelon in Save Percentage and Goals Against Average, he is the betting favorite for the Calder Trophy. He does not get easily rattled, does not give the shooter much to look at with his 6'4" 220 pound frame, and displays a wisdom well beyond his years. While Chris Osgood has solid experience, he has played like a fragile netminder this year. With Nash, Huselius, Vermette, Umberger, Torres and Williams, the Blue Jackets have enough fire power to test Osgood early. If he comes up short, it could be a very long series for the defending champs.
6. Intangibles--Although Detroit enjoys home ice advantage, the general apathy in Detroit mitigates against that being any real edge. There will be plenty of Jackets fans in the Joe for Games 1 and 2. Nationwide Arena will be a very hostile place for Detroit. The Jackets had only two fewer home victories than Detroit, and will be riding a lot of emotion. Their shortcomings on the power play will not be as significant in the playoffs, where whistles tend to find their way into referees' pockets. Vermette and Malhotra give Columbus the best face-off tag team in the league, and a significant edge if Draper is out for the first two games, as is being reported.
Is Columbus a cinch to upset the Red & White Wings?? By no means. Detroit has been playing in the post-season since man discovered fire, so a little jadedness is to be expected. This Detroit team is not a juggernaut, however, and has some significant vulnerabilities. The Central Division has emerged as perhaps the most competitive in the NHL, and the Blue Jackets have been steeled in that crucible all year. They are young, talented and determined. If they can execute the Hitchcock game plan and avoid killer mistakes, they will be far more dangerous than the pundits predict.
The Blue Jackets are hungry and want to stay at the table. Columbus in six.





