INSIDE HOCKEY

Here's some news that may trouble the rest of the NHL, especially the teams in the Central Division: the Detroit Red Wings are in outstanding salary cap position as they head into next season. The team’s current payroll is at $39.5 million with virtually all of the team returning next season. This means that in the off-season the Red Wings have $15.5 million dollars to work with, assuming that the salary cap increases to $55 million as many expect it will.

As the Red Wings faithful read this, I imagine they're experiencing rapidly increasing heart rates, hours of analyzing the 2008 NHL Unrestricted Free Agent List, and reading the “hockey experts” columns that pick where each player will go. Perhaps they even find themselves using Photoshop to crop images of Marcus Naslund, Mats Sundin, and Marian Hossa and put them in Red Wings uniforms. While all this is well and good, one question must be asked: How does the sight of Henrik Zetterberg skating down the ice in a Colorado Avalanche jersey make you feel?

If Wings General Manager Ken Holland is not careful, Zetterberg might be playing for a different team after next season. A year from now, unless a deal can be reached sooner, Zetterberg will be an unrestricted free agent. Coming off a Stanley Cup championship and a Conn Smythe Trophy, with 45 goals and 49 assists in 75 games in the regular season, and 13 goals and 14 assists in 21 playoff games to lead the league, Zetterberg is at the top of his game and poised to get top dollar in the free agent market next July.

Let's look realistically at the state of the Red Wings after this season. In 2008-09, Zetterberg will make $2.9 million; that number could easily triple in the free agent market the following summer. In order to keep Zetterberg for a realistic price tag, the Red Wings must lock him up during this off-season, similarly to what they did Pavel Datsyuk last year, in order to avoid a bidding war with another team.

Let’s assume Zetterberg meant what he told the Swedish newspaper, Expressen, last November: “I would gladly stay in Detroit for my entire career.” To make this a reality, the Red Wings will have to make Zetterberg the highest paid player on the team. Datsyuk was rewarded in April of 2007 with a 7-year contract worth $6.7 million a season. Expressen maintains that in order to keep Zetterberg, the Red Wings will have to pay him at least $7.8 million a season.

Assume Holland offers Zetterberg $7.8 million for seven years; though Zetterberg would be locked up, there are still many decisions left to be made. He is not the only UFA the Wings will have to deal with come next off-season. Fellow Swede Johan Franzen is expecting a raise as well, especially after the outstanding postseason he had, scoring 13 goals and assisting five times in just 14 playoff games. Next season Franzen will make $1.15 million, and assuming he has another solid year, the Red Wings could value him at $4 million a season for five years.

There are two other players who will also be free agents next July: Jiri Hudler and Mikael Samuelsson. This should be the end of Samuelsson’s days in Detroit, and he will move on. Hudler will be a restricted free agent, but with Zetterberg and Franzen making serious coin, this may be Hudler’s end as well.

If the Red Wings make these moves, their payroll for 2009-10 would be at roughly $52 million dollars, assuming that Chris Chelios, Darren McCarty, Valtteri Filppula, Andreas Lilja, Jimmy Howard, and Brad Stuart’s combined salaries for that season do not top $6 million. After the 2009-10 campaign, Niklas Lidstrom, Kirk Maltby, Brett Lebda, and Tomas Holmstrom are UFA’s.

Though the Wings can afford to sign a big name player to a long-term deal this off-season, don’t expect it. Anticipate Holland to look for a player eager to sign for one year hoping to win a Stanley Cup championship. Also, Holland could pursue a veteran goalie to back up Chris Osgood in case Jimmy Howard is not ready. A prime candidate is newly unemployed netminder Ray Emery. His career is in an aggressive downward spiral, and it is not far-fetched to imagine Holland offering Emery a one year deal worth a half a million or so, giving him an opportunity to revive his career.

How about the Buffalo Sabres’ goaltender Ryan Miller in a Red Wings jersey? Do you like what you see? After the 2008-09 season, Miller will be a UFA. Growing up in Michigan, playing his college hockey at Michigan State University, and with Chris Osgood turning 37, now seems to be perfect for Miller Time in Detroit. The question is not whether the Wings want him, but whether they will have the salary cap space to sign him. A lot depends on how much Lidstrom and Holmstrom sign for, and how badly Miller wants to play in Detroit. Players have been known to take less money (Steve Yzerman, Chelios, Brendan Shanahan) to play for the 11 time champions.

As you surf the web, you will find different “hockey experts” claiming the biggest prize of this year’s free agency period is Marian Hossa or Mats Sundin. But for the Detroit Red Wings to be the big winners this off-season, it won’t be because of the player(s) they sign. It will be because they understand the smartest move is to leave enough space to sign Zetterberg next season. In doing so, the Detroit Red Wings will give themselves a legitimate chance to drink from Lord Stanley’s Cup for years to come.

Contact the author at: akail@insidehockey.com

Stat Sources:
http://www.nhl.com
http://nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=DET&season=0809