As the NHL Draft rapidly approaches, trade rumors are swirling. The Pittsburgh Penguins are improbably considering offers for budding superstar Evgeni Malkin, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are dangling Bryan McCabe. The New York Rangers have apparently decided not to offer contracts to Jaromir Jagr, Sean Avery, and Michal Rozsival, at least not until July 1st (source: NY Post). The Senators' Wade Redden and the Sharks' Bryan Campbell are both expected to sign elsewhere. So what to make of all of this?

Malkin on the Move?

Reports suggest that the Pens have decided to pursue a long-term deal with playoff star Marian Hossa, the financial implications of which would make it effectively impossible to retain Malkin. Due to become a restricted free agent next July, Malkin would without question command a cap-busting contract offer. But in the meanwhile, it can fairly be said that virtually every NHL team would improve with Malkin aboard, so the Pens' trade possibilities are effectively limitless.

Of course, Malkin's options are many as well. Several Russian clubs reportedly have a keen interest in Malkin (source: Toronto Star), perhaps enough so to offer him a contract exceeding $12.5 million per year. In Pittsburgh, Malkin will always play second fiddle to Crosby, and would never be able to command the type of salary he'd get in Russia, especially in the wake of the U.S. dollar's falling value on the world currency exchange.

One rumor had Malkin headed to Los Angeles for a package including Anze Kopitar and the Kings' first round pick (second overall). And if the NHL wants to retain Malkin as one of its stars for the next decade, that trade makes good sense across the board. It's a fair trade from a hockey perspective, especially if the expected second overall pick (defenseman Drew Doughty) lives up to expectations. And putting Malkin in Hollywood just might present the budding superstar with enough incentive to remain in North America.

This promises to be one of the summer's most compelling stories. The one near-certainty is that the Pens will not want to hit July 1, 2009 wondering how much it will cost to match an offer to Malkin. Indeed, this summer is the best time to reach a long-term solution, and so dealing Malkin now makes some surprisingly good sense.

McCabe: A Unique Bargain?

Under the NHL's salary cap, teams are not permitted to spend beyond a certain level (expected to be around $55 million for the 2008-09 season). But they're also not permitted to spend less than the payroll minimum (~$40 million), and for the small-market teams in the United States' Sunbelt, that isn't necessarily going to be easy.

Ironically, one possible solution might come in the form of veterans nearing the end of lucrative front-loaded contracts. Bryan McCabe signed a five-year, $29 million contract with the Maple Leafs in the summer of 2006; that contract called for him to earn $7.15 million in 2006-07 and 2007-08, $6.15 million in 2008-09, and $4.15 million in 2009-10 and 2010-11).

The salary cap hit (or what counts towards the team payroll maximum/minimum) is the same in each season of the deal: $5.8 million. So a team acquiring McCabe for the final three seasons of the deal would spend $14.45 million in actual dollars while getting charged/credited with $17.4 million against the payroll maximum/minimum. Put another way, having McCabe for the next three seasons would save a cash-strapped team nearly $3 million in actual dollars. Not bad...

If the Leafs are wise, they will use this as a selling point when shopping McCabe. Of course, any deal will require McCabe's blessing, his no-trade clause providing the infamous holdup when the Leafs attempted to deal him at the trade deadline. Like Malkin, this is promising to be a very entertaining storyline to follow.

Others on the Move

As for the other high-profile players reportedly on the move, a wait-and-see approach is probably necessary. If the Rangers in fact decide not to re-sign Jagr, it could have a profound ripple effect on the rest of the negotiations. For one thing, Marian Hossa might choose to wait until July 1st to see what the Rangers might offer rather than signing with the Pens, thus making the Malkin trade less likely.

For another, if Jagr isn't wanted on Broadway, it's quite likely that he'll choose to play in Europe instead. And if that happens, his defection could spur other high-profile players to join him, making the Russian Super League a much more coveted destination for high-profile NHLers, particularly those of Russian descent.

Over the past few seasons, Michal Rozsival has put up some very nice numbers on the Rangers' blue line. But while he's certainly been productive, much of the statistical success is due to the fact that he's gotten to play on the Rangers' first power play unit with Jagr. If Jagr leaves, expect Rozsival to depart as well, paving the way for the Rangers' aggressive remodeling to continue.

Both Campbell and Redden would be attractive targets for the Blueshirts, as would Penguins hard-hitting rearguard Brooks Orpik (another UFA-to-be). If they let both Jagr and Rozsival go, Rangers GM Glen Sather would have the needed cap space to acquire two of those three backliners.

And then, of course, there's Sean Avery. During his time with the Rangers, it's been readily apparent that the team is far better when he's on the ice with them. Although his on- and off-ice antics can make him a distraction, no NHL team would benefit more from Avery's presence than the Rangers, while his pending departure could have a truly catastrophic impact on the team's won-loss record.