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Playoff Analysis: Wings-Avs

Series Preview

This is a wonderful opportunity to watch two long-standing rivals go head-to-head once again. It could fairly be said that no professional sports rivalry was more intense than Wings-Avs during the late 1990s. And though some of the key protagonists are no longer present (Steve Yzerman, Claude Lemieux, and Patrick Roy come immediately to mind), there is still plenty of bad blood between these teams. Look for this to be one of the most exciting series of the 2008 playoffs.

FORWARDS

Red Wings: The Wings certainly got a balanced effort from their offense in Round One, with goals coming from eight different forwards. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are the catalysts, but there is plenty of talent on all four lines. Young Jiri Hudler was particularly impressive, scoring five points in six games, while Johan Franzen (four points) continued his strong play from the latter part of the regular season.

Avalanche: Paul Stastny might have led the Avs in scoring during the regular season, but against the Wild, it was captain Joe Sakic who took over. He scored six points in six games to lead the team, and appears to be fully recovered from the hernia surgery that caused him to miss 38 games this season. And playmaking center Peter Forsberg was also stellar in Round One, tallying five points in six games to go along with an impressive plus-three rating. With Sakic and Forsberg leading the way, the Avs’ offense is quite fearsome.

DEFENSE

Red Wings: Perennial Norris Trophy candidate Nicklas Lidstrom rightly gets the lion’s share of the attention, but he got substantial help in Round One from Niklas Kronwall (five assists in six games) and Brian Rafalski (four points in six games). And of course, the ageless Chris Chelios defies description, continuing to play at a level that makes a mockery of his advanced age (46).

Avalanche: John-Michael Liles might be the quarterback of the Avs’ power play, but he shared the spotlight against the Wild, with Ruslan Salei and Jordan Leopold delivering two very impressive performances. Leopold escaped head coach Joel Quenneville’s doghouse to score three points in three games (he suited up only for Games Four through Six), while Salei’s two-point, plus-three performance helped the Avs regain control of the series in Game Four.

GOALTENDING

Red Wings: Goaltending controversy? Hardly. Chris Osgood decisively outplayed Dominik Hasek in Round One, taking over the starting job with some truly outstanding play between the pipes (.981 SV%, 0.39 GAA). And unless Osgood falters, look for Hasek to ride the pine for the remainder of the Wings’ playoff run.

Avalanche: One of the most remarkable storylines of the 2007-08 season was the re-emergence of Avs netminder José Théodore. A former Hart Trophy winner, Théodore suffered through two miserable post-lockout seasons before taking over the Avs’ starting job in mid-season. And if his play in Round One against the Wild is any indication (.940 SV%, 1.88 GAA), Théodore has what it takes to backstop the Avs all the way to the Cup. And if he did, it wouldn’t be the first time a former Canadiens star netminder enjoyed great success in Denver (see: Patrick Roy).

PREDICTION

Avalanche in Six


Game One
Red Wings 4, Avalanche 3

Why the Red Wings Won: For much of this game, the Wings controlled the pace of play. Their puck-possession game worked to perfection for much of the first two periods, and though the Avs managed to battle back from a 4-1 deficit, the tenacious Detroit defense held the fort and preserved a hard-fought 4-3 victory. Once again, Wings forward Johan Franzen delivered a stellar performance, tallying two goals (including the game-winner) and an assist to lead Detroit to victory. And though it wasn’t always pretty, Wings netminder Chris Osgood was as good as he needed to be to get the win.

Why the Avalanche Lost: Losing Game One on the road against the President’s Trophy winners is nothing to sniffle about. And the fact that the Avs played so well despite having to make do without star forward Peter Forsberg (groin injury) actually bodes well for their prospects in this series. However, two other players left Game One early, and it’s cause for serious concern on the Avs’ side. Left winger Wojtek Wolski left in the first period with a “lower body injury” and didn’t return, and after getting pulled following the Wings’ fourth goal, netminder Jose Theodore (undisclosed illness) was sent back to the team’s hotel. And while Peter Budaj was excellent in Theodore’s place, the Avs will struggle mightily if they must proceed without Forsberg and Wolski.

Key Moment: With just eight seconds remaining and Budaj pulled from the net, Paul Stastny had the game-tying goal on his stick. But Osgood took an aggressive stance, coming outside the crease to cut off the angle, and made a tremendous game-saving stop to preserve the 4-3 win.

What’s Next: For the Avs, it’s time to hope that Forsberg, Wolski, and Theodore are able to return and help get the team back on track. And for the Wings, they must simply continue to execute their dominant puck-possession game. The Detroit defense—and Niklas Kronwall in particular—was stellar in Game One, and they need to keep the pedal to the metal if they’re to eliminate the Avalanche and move on to the Western Conference Finals.


Game Two
Red Wings 5, Avalanche 1

Why the Red Wings Won: Quite simply, the Wings are outclassing the Avalanche in every key facet of the game. Their puck possession has been dominant through the series’ first two games, and they’re getting key contributions from role players like Johan Franzen, who has emerged as an elite-level forward in these playoffs. Franzen tallied a hat trick in Game Two to lead the Wings to a decisive 5-1 win, and it’s going to be very difficult for the Avs to get back on track in this series.

Why the Avalanche Lost: The Avs spent most of the second period of Game Two in the penalty box, and with Peter Forsberg and Wojtek Wolski (two key offensive contributors) out of the lineup, that was a recipe for disaster. Looking ahead, the Avs will need for Forsberg (groin injury) to make a miraculous recovery and return to Game Three in dominant form if they’re to have a chance to regain some momentum here.

Key Moment: Franzen’s tip-in goal just over four minutes into the game set the tone, and the Wings were off and running. The big, physical Swede is looking like a faster, better version of Wings mainstay Tomas Holmstrom, and that’s really bad news for the rest of the Western Conference.

Looking Ahead: The Avs will be hoping for Forsberg to return. Without him, this series could easily end in four games. For the Wings, it’s simply a matter of needing to keep playing their game, not allowing the Avs’ physical play to stop them from executing their dominant puck-possession-based attack.


Game Three
Red Wings 4, Avalanche 3

Why the Red Wings Won: Where the Avs were constantly scrambling around the ice, their goals the result of frenetic pressure, the Red Wings were cool, calm, and collected throughout, threading tape-to-tape passes to set up all four of their goals. Playmaker Pavel Datsyuk scored two goals and an assist, two-way dynamo Henrik Zetterberg added a goal and an assist, and Johan Franzen continued his storybook run through these playoffs. In nine games this spring, Franzen has tallied eight goals, providing both a valuable physical presence and a surprisingly deft scoring touch. And though goaltender Chris Osgood didn’t deliver his strongest performance of these playoffs, he extended his record to 5-0 (platoon partner Dominik Hasek is 2-2).

Why the Avalanche Lost: Perhaps it’s simply a matter of the Wings being a better club, but the Avs appeared to be chasing the puck—and the Wings—all night long. They certainly made a valiant effort, firing 33 shots at Osgood in the loss, but were always one step behind Detroit. Between the pipes, Jose Theodore delivered a very strong performance, but there was next to nothing he could do on all four Wings goals. In every case, a bang-bang passing play left Theodore facing a wide-open shooter, the Avs defense simply unable to do anything to neutralize Detroit’s high-powered offense. Perhaps Pavel Datsyuk said it best afterwards: “There were no defensemen on either goal. All I had to worry about was the goalie.”

Key Moment: The Wings were moving the puck around the Avs’ zone at will in the second period when Datsyuk found an open seam with only Joe Sakic in pursuit for Colorado. Datsyuk ripped a wrist shot past Theodore to give the Wings a commanding 3-1 lead, and the Avs were stuck in catch-up mode from that moment forward.

What’s Next: Down 3-0 in the series, the Avs are in very serious trouble. Only twice in 149 tries has a team come back from that deficit (the 1942 Maple Leafs and the 1975 Islanders), and the odds of the Avs accomplishing the feat against these dominant Wings are slim to none.


Game Four
Red Wings 8, Avalanche 2

by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Red Wings Won: The President’s Trophy winners proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they were the far better team in this series. And in particular, Johan Franzen stepped up with another stellar performance, tallying a hat trick in the Wings’ 8-2 Game Four romp. Over the course of the four-game sweep, the “Mule” scored nine goals, and his 11 playoff goals this spring has set a Red Wings’ playoff record... With at least one (and possibly two) rounds still remaining for Motown’s hockey stars. Franzen has a deft scoring touch, but his primary attribute is his willingness to crash the opposition’s net, battling his way to the most hard-fought real estate on the ice. And with the likes of Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and Nicklas Lidstrom getting him the puck, it’s no surprise that the talented Franzen has caught fire.

Why the Avalanche Lost: No Peter Forsberg. No Paul Stastny. No Ryan Smyth. No Wojtek Wolski. No Marek Svatos. Without five players who comprise most of their first and second scoring lines, it’s no surprise that the Avs didn’t have the firepower to match up against the Wings. And with Jose Theodore and Peter Budaj getting bombarded non-stop with high-quality scoring chances, the Avs didn’t have a chance in this series.

Key Moment: For the Wings, it came just over four minutes into the game, when a Mikael Samuelsson slap shot trickled past Jose Theodore and into the Avs’ goal. Without question, it was a shot that should’ve been stopped, and it put the Avs on edge right from the get-go. Meanwhile, Chris Osgood made a number of top-notch saves in the first stanza, filling his team with confidence. And when they scored two quick goals late in the first period (one by Tomas Holmstrom, one by Franzen), it turned out to be all the offense the Wings needed to take down the severely overmatched Avalanche.

What’s Next: For the Red Wings, the Western Conference Finals and a date with either the Dallas Stars or the San Jose Sharks. And for the Avs, an offseason expected to be chock full of upheaval. Numerous high-profile players may have played their final game for the Avs. Theodore is an unrestricted free agent, and it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be back in Denver next fall. There has been much speculation that captain Joe Sakic will call it quits rather than returning for another season. And Peter Forsberg’s NHL career might well have reached its conclusion as well, nagging injuries causing no end of frustration and disappointment over the past half-decade.