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Playoff Analysis: Habs-Flyers

SERIES PREVIEW
by Kevin Greenstein

Both teams squandered a 3-1 series lead in Round One before ultimately winning in Game Seven. But while the Canadiens romped to a 5-0 win over the Bruins on Monday night, the Flyers needed overtime to defeat the Washington Capitals in an emotionally draining win on Tuesday night. And now, the Flyers must play their third game in four nights when they head to Montreal for Thursday night’s Game One, no doubt putting them behind the eight-ball in what would already be a very tough series to win.

FORWARDS

Canadiens: It was no surprise that Alexei Kovalev played a huge role in the Habs’ victory over the Bruins. All season long, he was Montreal’s most reliable scoring threat, and he has long been known as a big-game performer. But what was a bit of a surprise was the emergence of the Kostitsyn brothers (Andrei and Sergei), who tied for the team lead with three goals apiece in Round One. The fact that the Habs won despite being without Saku Koivu for five of seven games—and despite the fact that they got only two points combined from Christopher Higgins and Michael Ryder—certainly bodes well for them moving forward.

Flyers: Daniel Briere certainly announced his presence as the key to the Flyers’ offense in Round One, tallying 11 points in seven games. Vaclav Prospal, whose trade deadline arrival coincided directly with a huge improvement in Briere’s play, is also a key component of the Flyers’ top line. Without question, stopping Briere and Prospal will be the Habs’ most challenging task. But the Flyers’ offense is surprisingly deep, with the likes of Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, and Joffrey Lupul all quite capable of catching fire.

DEFENSE

Canadiens: The Habs had the league’s best power play during the regular season, largely due to the stellar power play point work of quarterback Andrei Markov. But the Russian rearguard was strangely quiet in Round One, tallying only one assist in seven games. Meanwhile, once-maligned backliner Patrice Brisebois stepped up with a vintage performance, tallying five points in seven games (including the game-winner in the Habs’ 1-0 Game Four victory).

Flyers: In the Flyers’ Round One victory over the Capitals, Finnish rearguard Kimmo Timonen was assigned the unenviable task of shadowing Alexander Ovechkin. And while Ovechkin certainly scored his fair share of goals, Timonen’s performance was quite strong nonetheless. He contributed four assists while posting an impressive plus-two rating, no easy task when matched against Ovechkin. His defense partner, Braydon Coburn, was stellar as well, and Derian Hatcher’s Game Seven performance might well have been his best since the 2000 playoffs (when he captained the Stars to the Cup Finals).

GOALTENDING

Canadiens: Young Carey Price didn’t seem to be too flustered by the pressure of his first-ever NHL playoff experience. And even after things got ugly in Games Five and Six, he rebounded with a lockdown performance in Game Seven to ice the series victory. The key for Price is to keep things simple, and to stay in his net.

Flyers: It wasn’t pretty, and it certainly wasn’t easy, but Martin Biron got it done for the Flyers. He made some huge saves in Game Seven, helping to keep Ovechkin at bay. But though Biron was able to survive Ovechkin’s onslaught, he might find it more difficult to deal with the Habs’ tic-tac-toe passing, which forces far more side-to-side movement.

PREDICTION

Canadiens in Five


Game One
Canadiens 4, Flyers 3

by Brad Kurtzberg

Why the Canadiens Won: Although they did not play a crisp game, the Canadiens were persistent and kept coming despite trailing 2-0 and 3-2. Their best offensive player, Alex Kovalev, came through with two huge goals, a shorthander in the second period and the game-tying goal with less than 30 seconds left in regulation. The Habs also did a lot of little things right, winning 60 percent of the game's faceoffs and outhitting the Flyers 38-28.

Why the Flyers Lost: Philadelphia lost a pair of two-goal leads in their opening round series against the Capitals and they lost another in the opener against Montreal. To their credit, the Flyers did not go into a defensive shell with a one-goal lead in the third period, outshooting the Habs 13-9 in the third, but they could not hold the lead in the final seconds. Mike Richards took a bad penalty with 1:09 left in regulation after a knee-on-knee hit on Alex Kovalev. The Habs made them pay on the power play. Philadelphia was not physical enough on the road.

Key Play of the Game: After Richards' penalty, the Canadiens pulled their goalie in the final minute of the third period trailing 3-2. With a six-on-four advantage, the Habs tied the game on a goal by Kovalev right off a faceoff in the Flyers' zone.

What's Next: The Canadiens were lucky to escape with a victory despite the fact that their passes were not crisp and Carey Price was very ordinary in goal. The Habs have to pick up their play in both ends and take advantage of the Flyers' slower defensemen. Philadelphia did not play like the larger team and needs to pick up their physical play. Unless the Flyers figure out how to hold onto a lead, they won't be in the playoffs for too much longer.


Game Two
Flyers 4, Canadiens 2

by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Flyers Won: On Thursday night, playing their third game in four nights, the exhausted Flyers still battled the #1 seed Canadiens to overtime. And though the Habs came away with the victory, the performance no doubt filled the Flyers with confidence. But the biggest reason Philadelphia pulled even in this series with Saturday night’s 4-2 win was goaltender Martin Biron, who was unquestionably brilliant. He stopped 34 of the 36 shots he faced, including a handful of point-blank Canadiens scoring opportunities, to preserve the Flyers’ victory.

Why the Habs Lost: Put simply, Martin Biron. For though the Habs outskated the Flyers and outshot them 36-23, the Flyers stole a critical road victory because Biron delivered a spectacular performance. And unless they’re able to break through in Games 3 and/or 4 in Philadelphia, the Habs are going to be in very serious trouble.

Key Moment: Just six minutes into the game, R.J. Umberger lifted a seemingly harmless wrist shot towards the Habs’ goal. And when the puck floated past Canadiens netminder Carey Price, it set the tone for the game: Price wasn’t at his best, and the Habs were vulnerable. Though Montreal battled gamely, they were behind the eight-ball from the onset, and they’ll need for Price to deliver a strong bounce-back confidence-restoring performance in Game 3.

What’s Next: For the Habs, the key is to solve Biron. Breakaways, tic-tac-toe passing plays and point-blank shots were all swallowed up by the underrated Francophone netminder in Game 2, and the Canadiens will need to have more success in Philadelphia. For the Flyers, its now time to “hold serve.” If they lose either of the upcoming games at home, they’ll have squandered the opportunity this stirring victory has provided them.


Game Three
Flyers 3, Canadiens 2

by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Flyers Won: Philadelphia’s counter-attack was in full force on Monday night, as they scored three quick goals in the second period (on six shots) to chase Canadiens netminder Carey Price. All three goals were scored on the rush, after the Habs turned the puck over in the offensive end. And of course, there’s goaltender Marty Biron, who stopped 32 of the 34 shots he faced en route to the stirring victory. Biron might have been the Sabres’ second-best goalie, but he’s proving in these playoffs that he’s capable of stopping the puck more effectively and consistently than any Flyers netminder has since Ron Hextall was in his heyday in the late 1980s.

Why the Canadiens Lost: When the season began, it seemed clear that Montreal’s best chance to compete for the Cup would be if rookie Carey Price delivered a performance reminiscent of Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy before him. But as things currently stand, no such domination is in the cards, and the goals Price surrendered on Monday night—two of them soft as marshmallows—have to have shaken the team’s confidence in him. Habs head coach Guy Carbonneau would be wise to give Price another shot in Wednesday’s Game Four, but it’s clear that he’ll be on a short leash. Needless to say, time is running short for the 20-year-old Price to carry these Habs on his back to a storybook finish.

Key Moment: Derian Hatcher’s boarding major on Habs defenseman Francis Bouillon—that led directly to two Canadiens power play goals—threatened to change the course of the game in Montreal’s favor. But the Flyers held on for the victory, with Biron leading the way. And so instead, it was the Flyers’ second goal, a shorthanded marker scored by Mike Richards from just outside the right faceoff circle, that served as the game’s defining moment.

Looking Ahead: While the Canadiens have been renowned all season long for their skating ability, it appears that in this series, the Flyers have the edge. And unless the Canadiens are able to put together a more cohesive effort on Wednesday night—and solve the indomitable Marty Biron—this series is going to be over quickly in Philadelphia’s favor. For the Flyers, the task ahead is the same as the task behind; they must simply continue to put pressure on the Canadiens, and they must do their best to stay out of the penalty box. If the Habs have an edge in this series, it’s when their power play takes the ice.


Game Four
Flyers 4, Canadiens 2

by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Flyers Won: Once again, Flyers netminder Martin Biron weathered the Canadiens’ offensive storm, turning aside 36 shots en route to a 4-2 victory that gave Philadelphia a commanding 3-1 series lead. And perhaps most importantly of all, the Flyers’ diligent penalty-killers completely shut down Montreal’s vaunted power play. The win didn’t come easily—Philadelphia blew a 2-0 lead in the third period before Daniel Briere scored the game-winner with less than four minutes remaining (and R.J. Umberger an empty-net marker with two seconds left)—but it now seems a fait accompli that the resurgent Flyers will earn a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. And after their last-overall finish in 2006-07, this has to be considered one of the most impressive rebuilding efforts in professional sports history.

Why the Canadiens Lost: All season long, Montreal’s power play was a potent force, clicking at a nearly 25% success rate. But when it mattered most, their play with the man advantage was none too impressive. In Wednesday night’s Game Four, the Habs had eight separate power play opportunities but didn’t manage to score a single goal. And though Jaroslav Halak delivered a solid performance in relief of rookie Carey Price (pulled after a dismal Game Three performance), it wasn’t enough to get the Habs back on track.

Key Moment: When Halak came out to start Game Four, it was a clear sign that the Canadiens were panicking. Price is without question their goalie of the future, and benching him for this critical game—after trading Cristobal Huet at the deadline in order to give Price the starting role—was a potentially enormous mistake. By failing to show confidence in Price, the Habs likely filled the Flyers with confidence, setting the stage for Philadelphia to take command of the series.

What’s Next: Coming back from a 3-1 deficit won’t be easy for the Canadiens, especially without Price between the pipes. For while Halak is solid, Price is the netminder who has the potential to steal a game or perhaps even a series. And the lack of confidence shown in him by head coach Guy Carbonneau all but put the kibosh on the Habs’ Cup hopes. Look for Philadelphia to advance, perhaps as soon as Saturday night’s Game Five in Montreal.


Game Five
Flyers 6, Canadiens 4

by Brad Kurtzberg

Why the Flyers Won: Philadelphia never quit despite falling behind 3-1. After a very average 33 minutes, Philadelphia put solid offensive pressure on the Montreal goal and gained confidence as the game progressed. The Flyers managed 20 shots on goal in the second period and scored three quick goals. The Flyers also got scoring from a lot of different sources as 11 players had at least one point in the game. Martin Biron was sharp when it counted in the third period and R.J. Umberger continued his surprising offensive production with two big goals and one assist.

Why the Canadiens Lost: Rookie netminder Carey Price fell apart after Mike Richards' goal was allowed late in the second period to make the score 3-2. Price lost his confidence and his poor glove play continued to haunt him. The Habs' team defense was also shaky, allowing 20 shots in the second period to the Flyers and 37 shots overall. While Montreal came out and started the game playing with desperation, they could not sustain that emotion for 60 minutes. The Canadiens had chances to win the game in the third period but did not come through in the clutch.

Key Play of the Game: With 5:58 left in the second period and the Canadiens leading 3-1, Mike Richards tried to catch a puck in the slot but was unable to handle it. The puck went past Carey Price and into the goal to pull the Flyers to within one at 3-2. The goal was upheld after a lengthy review. Price was never the same after that and allowed two more soft goals in the next three minutes which completely changed the complexion of the game.

What's Next: The Flyers advance to the Eastern Conference Finals to face the winner of the Penguins-Rangers series. The Canadiens head to the golf course and to a million questions from Montreal fans and media about whether or not Carey Price is really the long term answer for the Habs in goal.