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Playoff Analysis: Wings-Predators

Series Preview
by Kevin Greenstein

Red Wings Outlook: Led by captain Nicklas Lidstrom, the talented Wings put together another magnificent season, coming away with their third President’s Trophy in the last four seasons. Lidstrom is the prohibitive favorite to win the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenseman, while dynamic forwards Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk pace the potent offense. Brian Rafalski, an offseason free agent signee, has replaced the departed Mathieu Schneider (Anaheim Ducks) with aplomb, serving quite capably as a power play point man alongside Lidstrom. And Johan Franzen emerged as a valuable clutch performer down the stretch. But the key to the Wings’ Cup hopes are in goal, where they’re hoping that 43-year-old veteran Dominik Hasek has a few more dominating performances left in the tank. If not, the task will fall to the re-emergent Chris Osgood, who enjoyed a fine season as Hasek’s backup.

Predators Outlook: It’s been a wild season for the Preds, whose future in Nashville was far more uncertain in October than it is today. Power center Jason Arnott paces the offense, while J.P. Dumont and impressive sophomore Alexander Radulov provide valuable support. On the blue line, Marek Zidlicky (43 points), Ryan Suter (31 points), and Shea Weber (five power play goals) have done a solid job making up for the free agent loss of captain Kimmo Timonen (Philadelphia Flyers). In goal, Dan Ellis vastly outplayed Chris Mason for much of the season, taking over the starting role with a league-best .924 SV%. The Predators are quite solid, but it’s unlikely that they have enough firepower to take down the stacked Wings.

Prediction: Wings in Five


Game One
Red Wings 3, Predators 1

by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Red Wings Won: Though Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk are the protagonists of the Red Wings’ offense, they are hardly Detroit’s only scoring threats. And the depth of scoring that the Wings boast gives them a huge advantage in this series. Yes, Zetteberg scored twice in Thursday’s 3-1 Game One victory. But Detroit opened the scoring when Johan Franzen battled his way in front of the Nashville goal crease and flipped a back-hand shot past Dan Ellis. And if Franzen and other Wings’ role players continue to contribute offensively, it will be extremely difficult for the Predators to match up.

Why the Predators Lost: Where the Wings capitalized on the opportunities given them, the Predators were simply unable to. During the second period, there was a single shift where Red Wings defenseman Brian Rafalski coughed the puck up an improbable three separate times. And despite continuously taking possession of the puck in the Detroit zone, Nashville failed to generate a single high-quality scoring opportunity.

Key Moment: Predators defenseman Shea Weber committed a costly turnover nearly seven minutes into the third period, when he coughed the puck up just inside the Nashville blue line. Weber’s gaffe allowed Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg to break in on a 2-on-1 rush that was consummated when Zetterberg buried a one-timer past Dan Ellis, giving the Wings a lead they would not relinquish. There isn’t a single Nashville forward as dangerous as either Datsyuk or Zetterberg—though Alexander Radulov has the potential to one day get there—and the Wings benefit greatly from the luxury of being able to put those two dynamic playmakers out on the ice together.

What’s Next: While Detroit’s offense is unquestionably fearsome, their stifling defense is the reason why they won the President’s Trophy for the third time in four seasons. And unless Nashville finds a way to start mounting sustained pressure, this will be a short series in the Wings’ favor. And with the loss of valuable role player Scott Nichol (arm injury), things aren’t going to get any easier for Nashville.


Game Two
Red Wings 4, Predators 2

by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Red Wings Won: Once again, the Wings demonstrated their superior scoring depth, with grinders Darren McCarty, Kris Draper, and Tomas Holmstrom scoring three of their four goals. And of course, the Wings also got key contributions from their stars, Nicklas Lidstrom tallying a power play goal and point partner Brian Rafalski chipping in two assists. The game was quite rough, no huge surprise given the fact that these two division rivals faced off on eight separate occasions during the regular season... Familiarity clearly breeds contempt. And by demonstrating that they’ve got the team toughness to keep up with the physical Predators, the talented Wings are answering critical questions about their Cup potential.

Why the Predators Lost: After firing 15 shots on Dominik Hasek in the first period—none of which went past “The Dominator”—the Preds’ offense went south, and they only managed to amass 12 more shots through the final two periods. Detroit’s thicket-like defense—and not their top-end scoring talent—is the key reason why they captured the President’s Trophy this year (for the third time in four seasons). And if the Preds cannot find a way to crack through the Wings’ vaunted defense, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll win even one game in this series.

Key Moment: From a pure hockey standpoint, the key moment came just 39 seconds into the second period, with Tomas Holmstrom parked in Dan Ellis’s goal crease, Lidstrom fired the puck past Ellis to give the Wings a 2-0 lead. But the feel-good moment of the night happened over 18 minutes earlier, when McCarty put in a rebound to open the scoring. McCarty’s comeback from substance abuse, divorce, and bankruptcy, is one of the most inspiring of the year, and his post-goal celebration whipped the Joe Louis Arena crowd into a veritable frenzy.

Looking Ahead: For the Preds, the task is simple. They must find a way to counter the Wings’ stifling defense. And for the Wings, they need simply to continue reducing the number of shots against Hasek, and to continue capitalizing on the opportunities they’re given. Should they win this series quickly, the victory will undoubtedly give the Wings a huge confidence boost.


Game Three
Predators 5, Red Wings 3

by Brad Kurtzberg

Why the Predators Won: More than anything, the Predators were persistent. They never stopped coming at the Wings and Dominik Hasek and didn't change their style of play even when they fell behind 3-2 early in the third period. There was a good amount of traffic in front of the Red Wings net during key points of the contest. Also, Nashville's best offensive players produced in game three, with Legwand, Arnott, Suter, Radulov and Zidlicky all putting points on the board. Dan Ellis was good in goal for the Preds and continues to show he is more than a journeymen netminder.

Why the Red Wings Lost: Detroit had some defensive breakdowns in the third period, especially during the nine second span where Nashville tied the game and took the lead. Hasek looked fatigued by the end of the game. Is it time to play Osgood in game 4? Detroit's defensemen are usually a key part of their offensive attack, but in game three, the Wings had 0 goals and 1 assist from their blue line corps. In their first two games, Detroit defenseman had five points. After they took the lead in the third period, the Wings looked like they thought they had the game, and the series, locked up.

Key Play of the Game: Just nine seconds after Ryan Suter had tied the game, Jason Arnott beat Hasek with a snap shot to the far side to give the Preds the lead. The stunned Wings never fully recovered.

What's Next: You know the arena will be rocking for game 4 in Nashville and the Preds confidence will receive a boost after their recent win. The Predators have to keep playing a smart game and they need more solid goaltending from Ellis. Is it time for Mike Babcock to start Chris Osgood for a game? Based on Hasek's age and Osgood's strong season, it wouldn't be a bad idea. Babcock also has to remind his club that the more talented team doesn't always win hockey games and that they have to outwork the Predators on the ice and not just be better on paper. The Wings defensemen also have to make smarter first passes out of the zone to improve Detroit's transition game.


Game Four
Predators 3, Red Wings 2

by Kevin Greenstein

Why the Predators Won: When captain Kimmo Timonen departed for Philadelphia last summer, it was widely believed that the Predators’ weakened blue line corps wouldn’t recover. But the Nashville defense has been quite effective all season long, and they certainly got it done at the offensive end in Game Four, accounting for all three goals in the Preds’ 3-2 victory over the Red Wings. Dan Hamhuis opened the scoring with a first period power play goal, breaking in on the left wing side and converting a nifty feed from Alexander Radulov. And then, just 32 seconds later, hard-hitting rearguard Shea Weber blasted a shot from the point past Dominik Hasek to give Nashville a 2-0 lead. And in the second stanza, just 11 seconds after Pavel Datsyuk halved their lead, Greg de Vries fired a shot from the point that sailed past Hasek. Another goal by Datsyuk in the third period was all the Wings were able to muster, and so Nashville evened this series at two games apiece.

Why the Red Wings Lost: Datsyuk and Zetterberg were all over the ice for the Wings, combining for 14 of Detroit’s 41 shots on goal. But the rest of the Wings failed to convert on the opportunities given them, most notably Mikael Samuelsson, who missed a wide-open net and a glorious opportunity to knot the game at three. Part of the problem, of course, was Nashville netminder Dan Ellis, who’s been nothing short of a revelation since taking over the starting job from Chris Mason this season. Much as the Preds’ defense was presumably weakened by Timonen’s departure, so too was their goaltending depleted with the trade of Tomas Vokoun to Florida. But as it’s turned out, Ellis has helped get Nashville back to even in this series, and if the Preds continue to play as they did in Game Four, they’re a good bet to upset the Wings and win a playoff series for the first time in franchise history.

Key Moment: Without question, it came in the second period, when de Vries scored the game-winner for the Preds just 11 seconds after Datsyuk brought the Wings to within one goal. By responding so quickly to the Wings’ first goal, the Preds made it abundantly clear that they weren’t prepared to let the victory slip away, and their decisive, hard-hitting play throughout this game served notice that they’re not going to succumb to the President’s Trophy winners without a fight.

What’s Next: The Wings must regroup after losing twice in Music City. If they fall in Game Five, the Preds will be in position to take the series at home, without needing to return to Motown for Game Seven. For Nashville, the task is simple. They must keep the pedal to the metal, putting constant pressure on the Wings and playing the type of aggressive, physical hockey that tends to upend the finesse-first Wings.


Game Five
Red Wings 2, Predators 1 (OT

by Tim Rosenthal

Why the Red Wings Won: The Red Wings were more opportunistic, and more than doubled the amount of shots on goal of the Predators, 54–21. Each of the three regulation periods saw the Wings fire double figures in shots. Chris Osgood was solid in goal when he had to be, and the defense around him would not allow the Predators to create many chances.

Why the Predators Lost: Goaltender Dan Ellis had to stand on his head tonight. Ellis made 52 saves in a brilliant effort; however, the defense could not stop the relentless Red Wings attack. Nashville also could not get many scoring chances, and had only three shots on goal in the second period, which was probably the period that they needed to get momentum on their side.

Key Moment: Johan Franzen's goal early at overtime (1:48 mark) on a great pass from Niklas Kronwall, led to an easy breakaway on a defensive breakdown in the neutral zone by the Predators. If the Predators don't breakdown, the game still goes on and as always in playoff hockey, anything can happen.

What's Next: After a so-so effort in game five in Detroit, the Predators return home to Nashville for game six. However, they will need a great effort again at the Sommet Center, where they have defeated the Red Wings in both previous playoff meetings. The Red Wings will want to get this series over with and move on. Chris Osgood should get the nod in net again which should help the cause. Expect Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom and company to carry the momentum for Detroit into game six in Nashville.


Game Six
Red Wings 3, Predators 0

by David Carty

Why the Red Wings won: They didn't make it look pretty; they didn't even make it look good. They just made it work. After a physical first period in which Nashville, arguably, had the upper hand, Detroit wore down the Predators and outshot them 21 to 4 in the second. The Wings peppered Ellis all throughout and would not relent. In the game's final period, sitting with a comfortable -- not so scary -- two goal lead, the Red Wings clamped down on the Predators, shutting down the lanes and keeping Nashville off the scoreboard in front of the rabid home fans. Chris Osgood only had to stop 20 shots, but he looked nearly perfect in the process.

Why the Predators lost: You can dissect it all you want, the Red Wings are just a better team. Losing Jason Arnott (concussion) hampered Nashville's offensive output, but the Predators just didn't pounce on the chances that they did have. If you're looking for a goat, Rich Peverley, in all of his 7:15 of ice time, might be it. He had both of Nashville's best scoring chances, a breakaway where he simply lost control of the puck and a chance in front that may have gone for a goal if one-timed. Goaltender Dan Ellis played every minute like a champion, but he was just a victim of circumstance. He allowed two long range Detroit goals, one of which goal scorer Nicklas Lidstrom admitted was lucky, but stopped every inside chance for 40 saves in Game Six. He played himself into a starting role and carried Nashville in a hard fought series, but there's nothing he can do about a lack of offensive production.

Key play of the game: Fresh off a Chris Chelios slashing penalty, Henrik Zetterberg won a faceoff back to Nicklas Lidstrom. Lidstrom, in the Detroit side of the neutral zone, sent a shot down ice that took a strange bounce up and over the left shoulder of Dan Ellis for the game's first score. The play didn't end the game for Nashville, but the couldn't regain their composure after the goal. They failed to get anything going on a subsequent 5-on-3 and were later put away by Detroit.

What's next: For Nashville fans, it's sure to be another off season of questions. Will the Predators downsize again? Can they continue to compete? Will the financial concerns go away? Nobody can say for sure. Detroit has issues to shore up heading into the Western Conference semifinals. They were sloppy in the defensive end and lost a number of face-offs. Having Chris Osgood between the pipes may have saved the series, but he won't cure all of Detroit's ills. However, if there is one team talented enough to overcome its own mistakes, it's Detroit.