by Ben Eisenberg
This is perhaps the most difficult series to predict in the East because both teams are so evenly matched. The Caps and Flyers met four times and went 2-2 against each other during the regular season, and we should expect a similarly close series between these former Patrick Division rivals.
Forwards
Philadelphia has a deeper group up front than Washington, with six forwards having scored 20 goals or more in the regular season. Mike Richards and Daniel Briere have each been posting roughly a point per game recently to help the Flyers win seven of their last nine. Briere’s health is a question mark, as he sat out the last two games with a knee injury and is day-to-day. The Flyers need him to stay healthy.
Washington’s top line combination of Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Ovechkin and Viktor Kozlov is a goal-scoring juggernaut right now. For a while, this was the only line that consistently dented the back of the twine, but in recent weeks, Sergei Fedorov and Alexander Semin have developed chemistry together on the second line. Keep in mind that Semin scored 41 goals last year and wasn’t healthy for a large chunk of this season. Now, with Fedorov at his side, he has scored five goals in his last 10 games.
The Flyers’ formula for success has been to get contributions from everyone up front, and it has worked out well for them. If Washington didn’t have Ovechkin, the Flyers would unquestionably have the more talented group of forwards. But Ovechkin alone gives the Capitals the slight edge offensively; he's that good.
Edge: Washington
Defense
Both teams have allowed exactly 2.77 goals-against per game this season, which is fitting since neither team consistently shut down its opponents. Blueliner Braydon Coburn, who is just 23-years-old, leads Philly with a +17 rating and Randy Jones has been a steady force in front of the Philadelphia cage. If playoff tested veteran Derian Hatcher returns in time for Friday’s opener in Washington, he’ll bring invaluable experience and potentially be a factor with his physical presence in front of netminder Martin Biron. One concern for this physical unit is whether they can hang with Washington’s speedy forwards.
The Capitals defensive unit limps into round one with two of its top-four defensemen, Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrison, questionable for game one with injuries. While youngster Steve Eminger has filled in nicely for Morrison, Washington will struggle to contain the Flyers attack if neither he nor Schultz can make it back. Taking health into consideration, Philadelphia’s defense looks stronger right now.
Edge: Philadelphia
Goaltending
Biron ended the season on a high note after posting consecutive shutouts to help the Flyers defeat the New Jersey Devils and Pittsburgh Penguins. That said, there are still question marks about the former Sabres backstop, who yielded a less than brilliant 2.75 goals per game in his previous eight starts.
Meanwhile, Cristobal Huet is riding a career-high nine game winning streak in Washington and has made show-stopping saves time and again of late. He made the big saves when the pressure was on and his team needs him to do so in the postseason. Right now, Huet is looking like a goalie that can steal a game or two that Washington doesn’t deserve.
Edge: Washington
Special Teams
Philadelphia boasts the second best power play unit in the NHL because they can beat you in so many ways. Right winger Mike Knuble leads the team with 15 power play goals and seems to score with the extra man every time he faces the Capitals. He’s exactly the type of player who exposes Washington’s lack of physicality in front of Huet. Meanwhile, the Flyers’ penalty killing squad is tenth in the league and constantly threatens to score shorthanded.
Washington’s power-play unit finished the season ranked tenth in the league, which is a deceiving stat. The reality is that the power play has been on fire since the addition of forward Sergei Fedorov. He along with Semin, offensively gifted defender Mike Green and Ovechkin are in such a rhythm together right now it’s scary. Also, Ovechkin routinely scores from the blue line using his wrist shot. The team’s 25th ranked penalty-killing unit, however, remains suspect.
Edge: Flyers
Coaching
Flyers bench boss John Stevens led a remarkable turnaround in leading them to a playoff appearance following the worst season in franchise history. Similarly, his counterpart Bruce Boudreau led a historic comeback in D.C. after taking over for Glen Hanlon in late November.
The Flyers have been criticized for playing flat at times down the stretch, and while Stevens will have his team prepared for the first round, they can’t afford to take breaks in the playoffs.
Boudreau, who is neck-and-neck with Guy Carbonneau of the Canadiens for the Jack Adams award, has achieved folk hero status in Washington. His players have embraced his wide-open brand of hockey and his honest style of leadership. The Capitals never seem to take a break and always put pressure on their opponents rather than the other way around.
Edge: Washington
The Flyers are going to try and assert their presence by playing the same physical force that got them here. The Capitals throw the body around a little less, but they are a big team loaded with grit that won’t back down from confrontation. Both teams can skate, but Washington is slightly fleeter afoot. Don’t be surprised to see this series go six or seven games.
In the end, Washington has so much momentum that it’s hard to see them losing this series, particularly with home-ice advantage in their favor. Much of the focus will be on Alex Ovechkin and whether or not he can continue to play at such a high level in the playoffs.
The Flyers are going to try and get physical with Ovechkin. They will attempt to neutralize him by sending multiple defenders and looks his way. Of course, teams have been doing this all year and it hasn't worked yet. Additionally, the Russian phenom has proven thus far to be the type who elevates his game when the pressure is on, as evidenced by his 11 game-winning goals.
Prediction – Capitals in six