The old adage “history is bound to repeat itself” is triply true when speaking of those who fail to learn from their mistakes. And by inking Alexander Ovechkin to a 13-year, $124 million contract last week, Washington Capitals owner Ted Leonsis demonstrated with one fleet stroke of his fountain pen that the NHL’s owners learned absolutely nothing from the events that led to the 2004-05 lockout (or, for that matter, the events that led to the 1994-95 lockout). When given the choice, NHL owners will spend more on players than they should, whether the deals are negotiated by a savvy player agent or, in the case of Ovechkin, a tenacious mother.

Back in 2001, Leonsis pulled off a blockbuster deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins to acquire Jaromir Jagr, a deal that at least initially paid large dividends. Capitals home attendance rose by nearly 2,000 fans per game in Jagr’s first season in our nation’s capital, and the future seemed quite bright. But Jagr’s seven-year, $77 million contract quickly became an albatross Leonsis needed to unload. The enigmatic forward was dealt to the Rangers late in the 2003-04 season, with the Caps agreeing to pick up half of his onerous salary in the process (that deal continues to save the Blueshirts $3.42 million per year).

Today, many Ovechkin supporters correctly point out correctly that he is the centerpiece of the Caps’ organization and a critical part of the team’s future if they’re to develop into Stanley Cup champions. But the same was also said of Jagr. And while there is plenty to like about Ovechkin’s game, from his ability to skate either through or around defenders to his blistering slap shot to his dazzling stickhandling skills, the things that make him special are also the things that make this contract such a painfully bad idea.

Ovechkin is an enviable combination of Mike Bossy, Cam Neely, and Pavel Bure, three of the most dynamic wingers ever to skate in the NHL. And not coincidentally, all of them saw their careers shortened by injuries. Ovechkin’s willingness to engage opponents physically—and to battle his way to the most treacherous real estate on the ice at breakneck speed—means that he is consistently putting himself in physical danger.

Ovechkin’s contract will undoubtedly also make him a target for disgruntled union members at the low end of the totem pole, whose escrow payments are necessary in no small part because of the exorbitant contracts lavished upon the likes of Ovechkin. If Flyers antagonist Steve Downie thought it wise to headhunt Dean McAmmond in a preseason game (for which he got suspended 20 games), how much fun will he have going after Ovechkin? The lack of respect shown by NHL players towards their peers in recent months has been nothing short of appalling, and Ovechkin’s contract effectively makes him a target for the league’s most unsavory characters.

Added to all of this valid concern is the potential negative impact the contract will have on Ovechkin’s motivation level. While there’s no reason to expect that he will devolve into a surly malcontent, the only way he will be worth this money is if he remains an elite-level player and a model citizen for the duration of the agreement. And there’s also no reason to expect Ovechkin—or any athlete, for that matter—to remain fully motivated after having an entire career’s riches lavished upon him at the not-yet-ripe young age of 22.

With this deal, the Caps committed $124 million to Ovechkin over 13 years, while the maximum amount he could have possibly earned over that time under the Collective Bargaining Agreement was just under $131 million. In other words, there wasn’t much further Mrs. Ovechkin could push Leonsis in those negotiations. And though Ovechkin has repeatedly stated that personal goals are a distant second priority behind helping the team to win, his contract will effectively make it nearly impossible for Leonsis to surround him with a Cup-caliber roster.

Getting the most out of Ovechkin will also require that the Caps commit a fair amount of money to a center and right wing for his line, thus ensuring that the team will probably be paying somewhere between $15 and $20 million per year for its top line over the course of the contract. Already, the Caps have committed $34 million for their payroll in 2008-09, but they have no starting goaltender and a possibly contentious negotiation to come with emerging offensive defenseman Mike Green.

The Caps’ division rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, have been absolutely shackled exactly this way, by the lengthy, lucrative contracts tendered to forwards Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and Martin St. Louis. Now, the Caps have effectively ensured that they’ll suffer a similar plight. Spending egregious amounts of money on forwards, no matter how talented they might be, is a terrible idea, especially for teams that cannot afford to spend to the fast-rising salary cap.

Indeed, defense and goaltending are the keys to success in the modern NHL. As things stand right now, the Caps will be constantly behind the eight ball, desperately searching for bargain-priced puzzle pieces to help them cobble together a Cup contender. Without top-flight goaltending and a far more capable defense corps, they will be nothing more than also-rans for the foreseeable future.

FOLLOW-UP COMMENTS

by Kevin Greenstein

This column received some heated responses from passionate Caps fans, many of which were included in the January 25th edition of the Inside Hockey Newsletter. Here are some follow-up thoughts on the Ovechkin contract, which should help to clarify what I was (and wasn't) saying...

First off, I would say that Crosby (though he was credited with giving the Pens a “discount”) actually did no such thing, and that the Pens aren’t much less cap-strapped by Crosby than the Caps are by Ovechkin. I know the two players are combined in virtually every conversation, but I actually think about them separately, and the problems I’ve got with Ovechkin’s contract have nothing whatsoever to do with Crosby.

In a nutshell, Ovechkin’s effectiveness is probably at (or at least near) its peak right now, and Leonsis is taking a huge risk that he’ll remain healthy and that he’ll remain motivated. My doubts about both are well-founded given the history of forwards like him getting hurt and athletes (in general) losing motivation after their big payday.

Leonsis signed Ovechkin to this deal because he feared that Ovechkin would sign a heavily front-loaded deal elsewhere, and that he (Leonsis) would be forced to either match or lose his current marquee player. Whether those fears were founded or not isn’t really the point, but if the cap goes up to $55 million, Ovechkin might have been able to get a 15-year deal worth $165 million from a loopy owner in another market. No question, Leonsis isn’t the only owner capable of overpaying young hockey players (see Penner, Vanek, Richards, etc.).

Is Ovechkin a wonderful hockey player? Absolutely. If I had to make a list of my ten favorite players to watch of all time, he’d definitely be on it. But that doesn’t mean the Caps are going to get 13 more years of this. If he suffers a knee injury, after recovery from surgery his skating stride won’t be as explosive. If he suffers a shoulder injury, his shot won’t be as dangerous.

These are things that happen to pro athletes all the time, and by committing so much money to Ovechkin (for what amounts to the majority of his playing career), the Caps have ensured that no matter how effective or motivated Ovechkin is or remains, he’s going to be their highest-paid player throughout those 13 years regardless.

Personally, I think Ovechkin’s great for the game, and I hope he remains one of the NHL’s brightest stars for the duration of the contract, if not longer. But I have my doubts that this contract will end well, and I thought they needed to be expressed. Every Caps fan should disagree with me right now, and hope that Ovechkin proves me wrong. Heck, I hope Ovechkin proves me wrong. But I have my doubts, and that’s all I was saying.